Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai welcome Al Wahda FC to Rashid Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have posted 6W 0D 4L at Rashid Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 1.50 PPG versus Al Wahda FC's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 0, Al Wahda FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 61% and Al Wahda FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46% | Al Wahda FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.38 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.901 / defence 1.073 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.194 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.238. Data: 28 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 28 Al Wahda FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 42%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Al Wahda FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 70% | Al Wahda FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.38 / Al Wahda FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.901 / def 1.073 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.194 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Al Wahda FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 2 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 33% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Record (2 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 1W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack rating (0.90) and Al Wahda FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Wahda FC's attack versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
33%
3.07
26%
3.88
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.97
1.59
Al Wahda FC xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
7%
15.01
10%
9.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 1.59 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 13W 6D 9L from 28 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 4L across 28 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai on 1.61 PPG, Al Wahda FC on 1.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 9W 1D 4L from 14 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Wahda FC's away record stands at 8W 5D 1L across 14 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.89 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Al Wahda FC in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 games (1.61 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 15W 9D 4L in their last 28 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's record when hosting Al Wahda FC specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
6
Draws
1
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, Al Wahda FC have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at 71%, Al Wahda FC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 71% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 71% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 71% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai defy the odds to beat Al Wahda FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Al Wahda FC 2-1 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.38 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 33% | Draw 26% | Al Wahda FC 42%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 46%, Al Wahda FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.61 PPG, Al Wahda FC 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.