Khorfakkan 1-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 39%, yet in-form Al-Wasl FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC meet at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 October 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khorfakkan have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.80 conceded. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Khorfakkan are significantly better at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Al-Wasl FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Wasl FC are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al-Wasl FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Khorfakkan, 4 for Al-Wasl FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2025, ended 2–1 with Khorfakkan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 69% and Al-Wasl FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 69% | Al-Wasl FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.71 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.253 / defence 1.340 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.258. Khorfakkan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Khorfakkan games / 32 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 39% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Wasl FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Wasl FC (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 80% | Al-Wasl FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Oct 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 39% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Khorfakkan 1.71 / Al-Wasl FC 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.253 / def 1.340 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.991 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Al-Wasl FC xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:45 on Friday 31 October 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Khorfakkan 1 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 39% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (7 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 4W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.99x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
39%
2.54
23%
4.40
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.38
1.67
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
7%
13.50
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.67 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 11W 7D 14L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 17W 8D 7L from 32 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Wasl FC are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 6W 4D 5L from 15 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.88 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Wasl FC in 62%.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Al-Wasl FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 17W 8D 7L in their last 32 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Wasl FC's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.40 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 5-2 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Al-Wasl FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Khorfakkan, 60% for Al-Wasl FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Khorfakkan and 73% for Al-Wasl FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Wasl FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Khorfakkan's games and 60% of Al-Wasl FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Khorfakkan's matches and 73% of Al-Wasl FC's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC finished level at 1-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.71 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.67 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.25 / defence 1.34 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 39% | Draw 23% | Al-Wasl FC 38%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 69%, Al-Wasl FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Wasl FC arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.