Khorfakkan 1-0 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khorfakkan host Al-Jazira at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khorfakkan — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan's home record at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Jazira stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khorfakkan at 1.40 PPG versus Al-Jazira's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khorfakkan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Jazira in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Khorfakkan have won 2, Al-Jazira 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 2–4 with Al-Jazira winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Jazira in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khorfakkan 70% and Al-Jazira 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khorfakkan 70% | Al-Jazira 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 2.01 xG and Al-Jazira 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.082 / defence 1.020 | Al-Jazira attack 1.413 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.357. Al-Jazira have an above-average attack strength of 1.413 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Khorfakkan games / 43 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 39%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.44 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Jazira 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Khorfakkan 60% | Al-Jazira 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Khorfakkan 2.01 / Al-Jazira 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.082 / def 1.020 | Al-Jazira attack 1.413 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Al-Jazira xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Khorfakkan 1 - 0 Al-Jazira.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 41% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 39% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira?
Record (7 meetings): Khorfakkan 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Jazira 3W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Al-Jazira's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Jazira's attack versus Khorfakkan's defence, projects 1.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.5%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
41%
2.46
21%
4.81
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
3.96
1.96
Al-Jazira xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.89
Clean Sheet
14%
7.06
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.38
5%
19.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.96 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khorfakkan come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 9D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Jazira sit at 1.51 PPG from 43 outings (18W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Khorfakkan's home form reads 7W 5D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Jazira have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.00 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Al-Jazira in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 18W 11D 14L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.24 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khorfakkan's record when hosting Al-Jazira specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Khorfakkan
2
Draws
4
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 4, Al-Jazira have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khorfakkan at 62%, Al-Jazira at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khorfakkan and 71% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Khorfakkan's games and 71% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khorfakkan's matches and 71% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Al-Jazira 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Al-Jazira 1-0 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 2.01 xG and Al-Jazira 1.96 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Jazira landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Al-Jazira attack 1.41 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 41% | Draw 21% | Al-Jazira 39%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 70%, Al-Jazira 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Khorfakkan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.