Dibba Al Hisn 1-4 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sharjah FC make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Dibba Al Hisn in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sharjah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.41 xG and Sharjah FC 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sharjah FC attack 1.061 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.693. Data: 0 Dibba Al Hisn games / 26 Sharjah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 25% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 52%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 4.00 | Draw 4.35 | Sharjah FC 1.92. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 25% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.41 / Sharjah FC 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sharjah FC attack 1.061 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.693 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Sharjah FC xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC?
Dibba Al Hisn 1 - 4 Sharjah FC.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 25% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 52% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dibba Al Hisn's attack at 0.85x the league average against Sharjah FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sharjah FC's attack (1.06x) against Dibba Al Hisn's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 0/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
25%
3.95
23%
4.43
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
3.47
2.06
Sharjah FC xG
3.95
25%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
3%
31.12
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 2.06 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Pre-Season
Sharjah FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
0
Draws
2
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Sharjah FC 1-0 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Dibba Al Hisn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al Hisn 1-4 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.41 xG and Sharjah FC 2.06 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 2.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sharjah FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 25% | Draw 23% | Sharjah FC 52%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.