Dibba Al Hisn 2-2 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ittihad Kalba make the trip to Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium to face Dibba Al Hisn in Pro League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Dibba Al Hisn (all games): 1W 2D 6L across 9 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.56 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al Hisn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 1W 0D 3L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the stronger side — 0.84 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.56). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 75% of their games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Dibba Al Hisn — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dibba Al Hisn 78% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 44% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dibba Al Hisn 56% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al Hisn 1.02 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.717 / defence 1.421 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.847 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.532. Dibba Al Hisn's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Dibba Al Hisn games / 35 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 18% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al Hisn 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.85. Al-Ittihad Kalba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad Kalba as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dibba Al Hisn 75% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al Hisn 18% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Dibba Al Hisn 1.02 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.717 / def 1.421 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.847 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.532 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad Kalba (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Dibba Al Hisn 2 - 2 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al Hisn a 18% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad Kalba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Dibba Al Hisn (all comps): 1W-2D-6L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dibba Al Hisn's attack at 0.72x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (0.85x) against Dibba Al Hisn's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 9/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad Kalba Win
18%
5.46
28%
3.62
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Dibba Al Hisn xG
Total xG
2.87
1.84
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
5.46
18%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
16%
6.32
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
3%
34.49
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Dibba Al Hisn and 1.84 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 9 outings, Dibba Al Hisn have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 1W 2D 6L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Dibba Al Hisn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's form line: 3W 4D 2L from 9 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad Kalba are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dibba Al Hisn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dibba Al Hisn have posted 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Ittihad Kalba's season.
Attack vs Defence
Dibba Al Hisn are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.67 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al Hisn have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al Hisn
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Dibba Al Hisn have gone 1W 2D 6L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dibba Al Hisn at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dibba Al Hisn at home: 0.75 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dibba Al Hisn or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dibba Al Hisn have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dibba Al Hisn
1
Draws
1
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 2 meetings on record, Dibba Al Hisn have won 0, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-1 Dibba Al Hisn.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Ittihad Kalba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dibba Al Hisn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dibba Al Hisn 75%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Dibba Al Hisn) and 25% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50%; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al Hisn home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dibba Al Hisn play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Dibba Al Hisn's recent matches and 25% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dibba Al Hisn vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Dibba Al Hisn's recent games and 25% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Dibba Al Hisn have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dibba Al Hisn and Al-Ittihad Kalba finished level at 2-2 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al Hisn 1.02 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.84 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dibba Al Hisn beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al Hisn attack 0.72 / defence 1.42 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.85 / defence 0.78, drawn from 9/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al Hisn 18% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 54%, with Al-Ittihad Kalba to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dibba Al Hisn 56%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dibba Al Hisn's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad Kalba arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dibba Al Hisn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.