Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-3 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Sharjah FC travel to Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium to take on Dibba Al-Fujairah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025, 15:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Sharjah FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sharjah FC haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sharjah FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dibba Al-Fujairah, 1 for Sharjah FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.34 xG and Sharjah FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.623 / away 1.515. Data: 0 Dibba Al-Fujairah games / 26 Sharjah FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 30% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Dibba Al-Fujairah 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Sharjah FC 2.17. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sharjah FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dibba Al-Fujairah 30% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.34 / Sharjah FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Sharjah FC attack 0.994 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.623 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Sharjah FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 15:05 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Dibba Al-Fujairah 1 - 3 Sharjah FC.
Where is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium.
What competition is Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC part of?
Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Dibba Al-Fujairah a 30% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC?
Record (2 meetings): Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W | Draws 1 | Sharjah FC 1W.
What form are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dibba Al-Fujairah's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
30%
3.38
24%
4.16
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
Total xG
3.08
1.73
Sharjah FC xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
5%
19.11
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Dibba Al-Fujairah and 1.73 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Dibba Al-Fujairah vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Pre-Season
Sharjah FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sharjah FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Sharjah FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
1
Draws
3
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, Sharjah FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 4-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Dibba Al-Fujairah and Sharjah FC?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dibba Al-Fujairah home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sharjah FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 1-3 at Dibba Al Fujairah Club Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.34 xG and Sharjah FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sharjah FC outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dibba Al-Fujairah 30% | Draw 24% | Sharjah FC 46%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.