Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's home record at Zabeel Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Wasl FC, 0 for Al-Ittihad Kalba and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 50% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Wasl FC 38% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.29 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.835 / defence 0.886 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.045 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.180. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Al-Wasl FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Al-Wasl FC games / 16 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 38% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 57%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.29 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.835 / def 0.886 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.045 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Wasl FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 0W.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (0.83) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (1.04x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.52
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.38
1.09
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.09 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 7D 5L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al-Wasl FC against 1.12 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Wasl FC
7
Draws
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 3, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 2-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 29%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Wasl FC) and 43% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 43% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.29 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 31%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 38%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.19 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.