Al Wahda FC 1-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Khorfakkan travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 February 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wahda FC have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wahda FC have posted 3W 3D 0L at Al Nahyan Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Khorfakkan in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Wahda FC, 0 for Khorfakkan and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al Wahda FC trading profile (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Khorfakkan trading profile (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 60% versus Khorfakkan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 53% | Khorfakkan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 2.36 xG and Khorfakkan 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.275 / defence 1.126 | Khorfakkan attack 0.844 / defence 1.673. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.259. Al Wahda FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.673 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Al Wahda FC games / 15 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Khorfakkan 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (63%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.36 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Wahda FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 67% | Khorfakkan 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Wahda FC 2.36 / Khorfakkan 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.275 / def 1.126 | Khorfakkan attack 0.844 / def 1.673 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Khorfakkan xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 63% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Record (1 meetings): Al Wahda FC 0W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 1.27x the league average against Khorfakkan's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 2.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.10
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.56
1.20
Khorfakkan xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
9%
10.63
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
2%
60.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.20 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 8W 6D 1L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan's form line: 4W 3D 8L from 15 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 8W 6D 1L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Wahda FC
4
Draws
1
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 5, Khorfakkan have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Wahda FC at 67%, Khorfakkan at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Wahda FC and 100% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khorfakkan in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Wahda FC's games and 67% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 100% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Khorfakkan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Khorfakkan 1-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 2.36 xG and Khorfakkan 1.20 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Wahda FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Khorfakkan landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.27 / defence 1.13 against Khorfakkan attack 0.84 / defence 1.67, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 63% | Draw 20% | Khorfakkan 18%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 53%, Khorfakkan 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.