Al Wahda FC 1-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Wahda FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 31 December 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Nahyan Stadium.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Jazira have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 54% versus Al-Jazira 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 54% | Al-Jazira 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.72 xG and Al-Jazira 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.984 | Al-Jazira attack 0.788 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.217. Al-Jazira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Al Wahda FC games / 11 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 54% | Draw 28% | Al-Jazira 18%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Jazira 5.56. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 50% | Al-Jazira 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 31 Dec 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 54% | Draw 28% | Al-Jazira 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.72 / Al-Jazira 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.098 / def 0.984 | Al-Jazira attack 0.788 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al-Jazira xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 15:30 on Friday 31 December 2021 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.10) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (0.79x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.58
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.67
0.94
Al-Jazira xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
3%
30.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.94 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 11 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 5W 5D 1L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 6W 1D 4L from 11 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.73 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.64 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Al-Jazira in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 6W 1D 4L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Al-Jazira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 50%, Al-Jazira 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Al Wahda FC and 75% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Wahda FC's games and 75% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 75% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.72 xG and Al-Jazira 0.94 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against Al-Jazira attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 54% | Draw 28% | Al-Jazira 18%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 54%, Al-Jazira 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.82 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.