Al Urooba 1-1 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al Wahda FC (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Urooba face Al Wahda FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Wahda FC make the trip to Dibba Stadium to face Al Urooba in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at 14:55 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Urooba have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dibba Stadium, Al Urooba have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Al Wahda FC have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al Urooba's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 0–3 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Wahda FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Urooba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Urooba 48% versus Al Wahda FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Urooba 71% | Al Wahda FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.24 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.920 / defence 1.401 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.136 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.346. Data: 21 Al Urooba games / 46 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 22% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 4.55 | Draw 4.76 | Al Wahda FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al Wahda FC (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Wahda FC are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Al Urooba 70% | Al Wahda FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Apr 2025, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 22% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Urooba 1.24 / Al Wahda FC 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.920 / def 1.401 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.136 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Al Wahda FC xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 14:55 on Tuesday 22 April 2025 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC?
Al Urooba 1 - 1 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 22% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 0 | Al Wahda FC 3W.
What form are Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC in?
Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Urooba's attack at 0.92x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.14x) against Al Urooba's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from 21/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
22%
4.64
21%
4.88
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.38
2.14
Al Wahda FC xG
4.64
22%
Home win
4.88
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
12%
8.52
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
3%
39.52
17%
5.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Al Urooba and 2.14 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Al Urooba have picked up 0.29 PPG on a 2W 0D 19L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 10W 6D 5L from 21 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Wahda FC are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Urooba have posted 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (2W 0D 8L).
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Wahda FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Urooba are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 2.62 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.90 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al Urooba have gone 2W 0D 19L in their last 21 games (0.29 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Urooba at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al Wahda FC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Urooba at home: 0.60 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al Urooba or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Urooba have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Wahda FC won 0-4 on 19 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Urooba have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Al Wahda FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Al Urooba 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Urooba 70%, Al Wahda FC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Urooba and 50% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC in 50%; Al Wahda FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Urooba play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Urooba's games and 40% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Urooba vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Urooba's matches and 50% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al Urooba have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Urooba and Al Wahda FC finished level at 1-1 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.24 xG and Al Wahda FC 2.14 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al Wahda FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.92 / defence 1.40 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 22% | Draw 21% | Al Wahda FC 58%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Urooba 71%, Al Wahda FC 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Urooba's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Urooba (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.