Al Urooba 1-5 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Urooba vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dibba Stadium plays host to Al Urooba versus Al Nasr in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 23 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Nasr's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Nasr haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al Urooba 0W, Al Nasr 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Urooba 1.38 xG and Al Nasr 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Urooba attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al Nasr attack 0.989 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.705. Data: 0 Al Urooba games / 26 Al Nasr games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Urooba 26% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 49%. Fair-value odds: Al Urooba 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al Nasr 2.04. Al Nasr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Nasr as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Urooba vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dibba Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Urooba 26% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Al Urooba 1.38 / Al Nasr 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: Al Urooba attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al Nasr attack 0.989 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.705 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Urooba xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Al Nasr xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Urooba vs Al Nasr kick off?
Al Urooba vs Al Nasr kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Dibba Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Urooba vs Al Nasr?
Al Urooba 1 - 5 Al Nasr.
Where is Al Urooba vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Dibba Stadium.
What competition is Al Urooba vs Al Nasr part of?
Al Urooba vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Urooba vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Al Urooba a 26% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Urooba vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Al Urooba and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Urooba vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al Nasr?
Record (2 meetings): Al Urooba 0W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 1W.
What form are Al Urooba and Al Nasr in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Nasr (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Urooba's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al Nasr's attack (0.99x) against Al Urooba's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 0/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
26%
3.92
26%
3.89
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Urooba xG
Total xG
3.32
1.94
Al Nasr xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
14%
6.96
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
4%
27.29
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Urooba vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Urooba and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Urooba and 1.94 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Urooba vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Urooba
Pre-Season
Al Nasr
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Al Nasr go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won 5-0 on 26 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Urooba have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Nasr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Urooba
1
Draws
3
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Urooba and Al Nasr?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Urooba have won 0, Al Nasr have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Urooba and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Al Nasr 2-1 Al Urooba.
Who has won more matches between Al Urooba and Al Nasr?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Urooba home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Al Nasr run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Al Urooba 1-5 at Dibba Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Urooba 1.38 xG and Al Nasr 1.94 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Al Nasr outscored their 1.94 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Urooba attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al Nasr attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 0/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Urooba 26% | Draw 26% | Al Nasr 49%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.