Al Nasr 2-1 Sharjah FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al Nasr welcome Sharjah FC to Al Maktoum Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Nasr have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr at Al Maktoum Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Al Nasr are significantly better at Al Maktoum Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sharjah FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Sharjah FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sharjah FC are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Al Nasr, 3 for Sharjah FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Nasr in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sharjah FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 61% and Sharjah FC 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 64% | Sharjah FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.08 xG and Sharjah FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 1.009 / defence 1.044 | Sharjah FC attack 0.945 / defence 0.730. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.352. Sharjah FC's defence strength of 0.730 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al Nasr games / 44 Sharjah FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 30% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sharjah FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al Nasr 70% | Sharjah FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 30% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Nasr 1.08 / Sharjah FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 1.009 / def 1.044 | Sharjah FC attack 0.945 / def 0.730 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sharjah FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Al Nasr 2 - 1 Sharjah FC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC part of?
Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 30% chance of winning, Sharjah FC a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Nasr and Sharjah FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al Nasr 2W | Draws 2 | Sharjah FC 3W.
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Sharjah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Nasr's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Sharjah FC's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Sharjah FC's attack versus Al Nasr's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
30%
3.31
27%
3.66
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.41
1.33
Sharjah FC xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.33 for Sharjah FC, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Nasr come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 9D 16L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sharjah FC sit at 1.89 PPG from 44 outings (23W 14D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Nasr on 1.50 PPG, Sharjah FC on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Nasr's home form reads 12W 4D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Sharjah FC have taken 1.91 points per game from 22 outings (12W 6D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Nasr are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sharjah FC are on 1.86 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sharjah FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Sharjah FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Sharjah FC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 games (1.50 PPG), while Sharjah FC have gone 23W 14D 7L in their last 44 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Sharjah FC away?
Sharjah FC's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.82 PPG; Sharjah FC away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Sharjah FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sharjah FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Nasr's record when hosting Sharjah FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Sharjah FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Sharjah FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Sharjah FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Sharjah FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 59%, Sharjah FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Nasr) and 54% (Sharjah FC).
On the defensive side: Al Nasr have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Sharjah FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Sharjah FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Nasr's games and 68% of Sharjah FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Nasr vs Sharjah FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Nasr's recent games and 54% of Sharjah FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Sharjah FC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sharjah FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Nasr defy the odds to beat Sharjah FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Sharjah FC 2-1 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.08 xG and Sharjah FC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Nasr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against Sharjah FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.73, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 30% | Draw 27% | Sharjah FC 43%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Nasr win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 64%, Sharjah FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sharjah FC's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.50 PPG, Sharjah FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.