Al Nasr 1-0 Baniyas SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Nasr at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Nasr and Baniyas SC meet at Al Maktoum Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Nasr have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr at Al Maktoum Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Baniyas SC (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Baniyas SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Baniyas SC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Al Nasr, 1.30 for Baniyas SC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Nasr, 2 for Baniyas SC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 2–4 with Baniyas SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al Nasr half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Baniyas SC half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Nasr 44% versus Baniyas SC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 49% | Baniyas SC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.55 xG and Baniyas SC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.859 / defence 0.925 | Baniyas SC attack 0.881 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.627. Data: 40 Al Nasr games / 39 Baniyas SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 42% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Baniyas SC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Nasr at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 40% | Baniyas SC 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 42% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Nasr 1.55 / Baniyas SC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.859 / def 0.925 | Baniyas SC attack 0.881 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.627 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Baniyas SC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC kick off?
Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC kicked off at 13:35 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC?
Al Nasr 1 - 0 Baniyas SC.
Where is Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC part of?
Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 42% chance of winning, Baniyas SC a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Nasr and Baniyas SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Baniyas SC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Nasr 1W | Draws 2 | Baniyas SC 2W.
What form are Al Nasr and Baniyas SC in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Baniyas SC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Nasr's attack rating (0.86) and Baniyas SC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baniyas SC's attack (0.88x) against Al Nasr's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.79
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.87
1.33
Baniyas SC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
7%
14.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Baniyas SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.33 for Baniyas SC, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Nasr come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 8D 19L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Baniyas SC sit at 1.03 PPG from 39 outings (11W 7D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Baniyas SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.03 for Baniyas SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Nasr's home form reads 7W 3D 8L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Baniyas SC have taken 1.00 points per game from 18 outings (5W 3D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Al Nasr are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Baniyas SC are on 1.31 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Blended
Baniyas SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Baniyas SC in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 12W 8D 19L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Baniyas SC have gone 11W 7D 21L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Baniyas SC away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.33 PPG; Baniyas SC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Nasr or Baniyas SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Nasr have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Baniyas SC in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Nasr won 4-1 on 29 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Baniyas SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
3
Draws
3
Baniyas SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Baniyas SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Baniyas SC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Baniyas SC last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al Nasr 0-2 Baniyas SC.
Who has won more matches between Al Nasr and Baniyas SC?
Al Nasr have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Baniyas SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 39%, Baniyas SC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Al Nasr) and 72% (Baniyas SC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Nasr keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Nasr have failed to score in 28% of games; Baniyas SC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Baniyas SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Baniyas SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 61% of Baniyas SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Baniyas SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 39% of Al Nasr's matches and 72% of Baniyas SC's.
Do Al Nasr and Baniyas SC tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baniyas SC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Baniyas SC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Baniyas SC 1-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.55 xG and Baniyas SC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Baniyas SC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Baniyas SC attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 42% | Draw 26% | Baniyas SC 32%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 49%, Baniyas SC 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Baniyas SC's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.13 PPG, Baniyas SC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Baniyas SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.