Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-2 Al Bataeh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ittihad Kalba face Al Bataeh.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al Bataeh make the trip to Ittihad Kalba Club Stadium to face Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Thursday 29 February 2024 at 16:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Ittihad Kalba's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Bataeh (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al Bataeh's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1.20 for Al Bataeh — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) — Al-Ittihad Kalba have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al Bataeh in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al-Ittihad Kalba, 1 for Al Bataeh and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Al-Ittihad Kalba 0–0 Al Bataeh — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Al Bataeh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad Kalba 59% and Al Bataeh 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad Kalba 62% | Al Bataeh 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.47 xG and Al Bataeh 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 0.874 / defence 1.016 | Al Bataeh attack 0.850 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.648. Data: built from Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 40 games and Al Bataeh's last 39.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad Kalba 38% | Draw 26% | Al Bataeh 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.63 | Draw 3.82 | Al Bataeh 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad Kalba at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad Kalba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad Kalba's last 10 home games and Al Bataeh's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad Kalba 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Bataeh 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights