Al Ain 5-1 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Ain vs Khorfakkan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Al Ain welcome Khorfakkan to Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Ain — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Ain haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al Ain at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khorfakkan stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Khorfakkan haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Al Ain) versus 0.70 (Khorfakkan). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al Ain have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 5 past contests while Khorfakkan have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Al Ain winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al Ain and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al Ain in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Khorfakkan in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Ain 58% and Khorfakkan 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Ain 65% | Khorfakkan 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Ain 1.67 xG and Khorfakkan 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Ain attack 0.948 / defence 1.076 | Khorfakkan attack 0.953 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.693. Data: 26 Al Ain games / 26 Khorfakkan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Ain 37% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 39%. Fair-value odds: Al Ain 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Khorfakkan 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khorfakkan at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Ain 70% | Khorfakkan 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Ain vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Ain 37% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Ain 1.67 / Khorfakkan 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Ain attack 0.948 / def 1.076 | Khorfakkan attack 0.953 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.693 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Al Ain xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Khorfakkan xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Ain vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al Ain vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Ain vs Khorfakkan?
Al Ain 5 - 1 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al Ain vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al Ain vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al Ain vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Ain vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al Ain a 37% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Ain vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Ain and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al Ain vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Khorfakkan?
Record (5 meetings): Al Ain 5W | Draws 0 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Al Ain and Khorfakkan in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Al Ain (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Ain's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al Ain's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
37%
2.73
24%
4.16
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Al Ain xG
Total xG
3.41
1.74
Khorfakkan xG
2.73
37%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.47
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Ain vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al Ain and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Al Ain and 1.74 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Ain vs Khorfakkan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Ain's recent record stands at 14W 3D 9L from 26 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. Al Ain haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 14L across 26 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. Khorfakkan haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Ain by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Ain have managed 5W 2D 6L from 13 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.73 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 1W 4D 8L across 13 trips, a 0.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Ain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Ain are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.38 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khorfakkan in 73%.
Last 26 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Ain
Pre-Season
Khorfakkan
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Ain and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al Ain have gone 14W 3D 9L in their last 26 games (1.73 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Ain at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al Ain's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Ain at home: 1.31 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Ain have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2024, when Al Ain won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Ain's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Al Ain
1
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Ain and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Ain have won 9, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Ain and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Al Ain 2-0 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Al Ain and Khorfakkan?
Al Ain have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Ain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Ain at 69%, Khorfakkan at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Al Ain and 69% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Ain home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Ain play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Al Ain's games and 77% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Ain vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Al Ain's matches and 69% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al Ain and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al Ain have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Ain run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Ain beat Khorfakkan 5-1 at Hazza Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Ain 1.67 xG and Khorfakkan 1.74 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Al Ain beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Ain attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Khorfakkan attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Ain 37% | Draw 24% | Khorfakkan 39%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Ain win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Ain 65%, Khorfakkan 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Ain's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Ain arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Ain (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.