Vorskla Poltava 2-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vorskla Poltava face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to take on Vorskla Poltava in Premier League (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vorskla Poltava stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vorskla Poltava at home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vorskla Poltava) versus 1.10 (FC Kharkiv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, FC Kharkiv 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Vorskla Poltava 0–0 FC Kharkiv — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Vorskla Poltava in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 55% versus FC Kharkiv 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 52% | FC Kharkiv 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.069 / defence 1.377 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.674 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.191. FC Kharkiv's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Vorskla Poltava's defence rating of 1.377 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Kharkiv's projected output up. Data: built from Vorskla Poltava's last 41 games and FC Kharkiv's last 40.
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 34%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.86 | Draw 3.26 | FC Kharkiv 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vorskla Poltava's last 10 home games and FC Kharkiv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vorskla Poltava 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.12 / FC Kharkiv 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 1.069 / def 1.377 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.674 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv FAQs
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Vorskla Poltava 2 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 12) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 35% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vorskla Poltava's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vorskla Poltava's last 41 games and FC Kharkiv's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
35%
2.86
31%
3.26
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.22
1.10
FC Kharkiv xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.10 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 7D 16L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 9W 16D 15L from 40 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 1.65 PPG from their last 20 home games (10W 3D 7L).
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 10D 7L from their last 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.75 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Vorskla Poltava (Home) vs FC Kharkiv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv Form FAQs
What form are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 7D 16L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 9W 16D 15L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 1.65 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Vorskla Poltava
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 May 2024: FC Kharkiv 3-2 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 50%, FC Kharkiv 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Vorskla Poltava and 20% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; FC Kharkiv in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vorskla Poltava vs FC Kharkiv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 25% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 20% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 55% of FC Kharkiv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava and FC Kharkiv finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.10 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 1.07 / defence 1.38 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.67 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 35% | Draw 31% | FC Kharkiv 34%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 52%, FC Kharkiv 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.