Minai 0-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Minai vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vorskla Poltava travel to Stadion Mynai to take on Minai in Premier League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Minai stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Minai have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Vorskla Poltava — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Minai have won 1, Vorskla Poltava 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 May 2023, ended Minai 2–0 Vorskla Poltava — a Minai win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Minai trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 45% versus Vorskla Poltava 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Minai 29% | Vorskla Poltava 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 0.85 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.703 / defence 1.118 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.941 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.203. Minai's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Minai's last 42 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 42.
Result probabilities: Minai 24% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 45%. Fair-value odds: Minai 4.14 | Draw 3.28 | Vorskla Poltava 2.21. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Minai's last 10 home games and Vorskla Poltava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Minai 30% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadion Mynai • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 24% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Minai 0.85 / Vorskla Poltava 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.703 / def 1.118 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.941 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Minai xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vorskla Poltava xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Minai vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Minai vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Minai vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion Mynai.
What was the final score in Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Minai 0 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mynai.
What competition is Minai vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Minai vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 24% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Minai and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Minai vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Minai's attack rating (0.70) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Minai's last 42 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
24%
4.14
31%
3.28
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Minai xG
Total xG
2.11
1.26
Vorskla Poltava xG
4.14
24%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
14.67
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.3 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Minai vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Minai and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Minai and 1.26 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Minai's recent record stands at 8W 14D 20L from 42 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 17W 8D 17L across 42 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vorskla Poltava by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Minai heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Minai have managed 3W 7D 10L from their last 20 home games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 7W 4D 9L across their last 20 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Minai are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.24 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Minai (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Minai
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Minai vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Minai and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 0.80 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 11 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Minai's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Minai
1
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Minai vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Minai have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Minai and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 May 2024: Vorskla Poltava 2-3 Minai.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Minai see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 40%, Vorskla Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Minai) and 55% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Minai have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Minai vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Minai and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Minai's recent matches and 60% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Minai and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Minai's recent games and 55% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Vorskla Poltava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Minai's recent matches and 75% of Vorskla Poltava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Minai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Mynai, Regular Season - 13, as Minai and Vorskla Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 0.85 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.26 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Minai fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.70 / defence 1.12 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.94 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 24% | Draw 31% | Vorskla Poltava 45%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 29%, Vorskla Poltava 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vorskla Poltava arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Minai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.