Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho to face Vorskla Poltava in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Chornomorets have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 0.60 for Chornomorets. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Vorskla Poltava are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 1–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
The historical record gives Vorskla Poltava a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 44% versus Chornomorets 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vorskla Poltava 44% | Chornomorets 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.39 xG and Chornomorets 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.847 / defence 1.182 | Chornomorets attack 0.803 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.031. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Vorskla Poltava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Vorskla Poltava games / 57 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 25%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 4.00. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 30% | Chornomorets 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.39 / Chornomorets 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.847 / def 1.182 | Chornomorets attack 0.803 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Chornomorets xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Vorskla Poltava 1 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 45% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
Record (6 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 5W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vorskla Poltava's attack rating (0.85) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.80x) against Vorskla Poltava's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.40
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Chornomorets xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
6%
15.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 0.98 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Vorskla Poltava have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 15W 13D 29L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets's form line: 15W 5D 37L from 57 games, 0.88 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Vorskla Poltava against 0.88 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Vorskla Poltava have posted 0.93 PPG from 29 outings (7W 6D 16L).
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 4W 3D 22L from 29 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vorskla Poltava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.96 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 15W 13D 29L in their last 57 games (1.02 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 15W 5D 37L in their last 57 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Chornomorets away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 0.93 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Vorskla Poltava
1
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, Chornomorets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 45%, Chornomorets 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Vorskla Poltava) and 52% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 41% of games; Chornomorets in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 52% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 52% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Vorskla Poltava 1-2 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.39 xG and Chornomorets 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Chornomorets attack 0.80 / defence 1.40, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 45% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 25%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Chornomorets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 44%, Chornomorets 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.02 PPG, Chornomorets 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.