Ruh Lviv 1-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Ruh Lviv welcome LNZ Cherkasy to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv's home record at Arena Lviv: 2W 7D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, LNZ Cherkasy have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ruh Lviv) versus 1.60 (LNZ Cherkasy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 61% versus LNZ Cherkasy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 39% | LNZ Cherkasy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.99 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.988 / defence 0.959 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.771 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.299. Data: 51 Ruh Lviv games / 21 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 70% | LNZ Cherkasy 30%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.99 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.988 / def 0.959 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.771 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Ruh Lviv 1 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 35% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (1 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.99) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
35%
2.84
31%
3.20
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.95
0.96
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.96 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 10W 10D 3L from 23 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 8L across 23 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ruh Lviv by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 2W 8D 1L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.74 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 4W 5D 2L across 11 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.04 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ruh Lviv have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 10D 3L in their last 23 games (1.74 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.27 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ruh Lviv
0
Draws
5
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Ruh Lviv 1-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 64%, LNZ Cherkasy 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Ruh Lviv and 36% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 46%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 36% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.99 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 35% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 34%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 39%, LNZ Cherkasy 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.