Polessya vs Veres Rivne – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Polessya (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Polessya face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host Veres Rivne at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Polessya — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Polessya have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Polessya, 1 for Veres Rivne and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Veres Rivne trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 37% versus Veres Rivne 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Polessya 45% | Veres Rivne 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.52 xG and Veres Rivne 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.329 / defence 0.905 | Veres Rivne attack 0.743 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. Polessya carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Polessya games / 39 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 54% | Draw 31% | Veres Rivne 16%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Veres Rivne 6.25. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 70% | Veres Rivne 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 54% | Draw 31% | Veres Rivne 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Polessya 1.52 / Veres Rivne 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.329 / def 0.905 | Veres Rivne attack 0.743 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Polessya (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Veres Rivne xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Polessya vs Veres Rivne is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
Where is Polessya vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Veres Rivne part of?
Polessya vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 54% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Polessya and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Veres Rivne?
Record (6 meetings): Polessya 3W | Draws 2 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Polessya and Veres Rivne in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Polessya's attack at 1.33x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
54%
1.86
31%
3.28
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.26
0.73
Veres Rivne xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
3%
29.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Polessya and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Polessya and 0.73 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Polessya come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 6D 9L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.05 PPG from 38 outings (9W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Polessya's home form reads 11W 4D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (4W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.84 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 23W 6D 9L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 9W 13D 16L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Veres Rivne away?
Polessya's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.95 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Polessya or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Polessya and Veres Rivne runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Veres Rivne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Polessya's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Polessya
2
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Veres Rivne?
From 6 meetings on record, Polessya have won 3, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Polessya 1-1 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Veres Rivne?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Polessya 42% BTTS, Veres Rivne 26%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Polessya and 26% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 37%; Polessya have failed to score in 26% of games; Veres Rivne in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Polessya's recent matches and 26% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Polessya's recent games and 26% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.