Obolon'-Brovar 2-1 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Obolon'-Brovar at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar host Inhulets at Obolon Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inhulets stand at 0W 4D 3L from 7 Premier League matches — 0.57 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Inhulets's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Obolon'-Brovar at 0.60 PPG versus Inhulets's 0.57. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they fail to score in 86% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 14% versus Inhulets 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 57% | Inhulets 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 xG and Inhulets 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.726 / defence 1.221 | Inhulets attack 0.746 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.160. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Obolon'-Brovar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Obolon'-Brovar games / 7 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 32%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Inhulets 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 20% | Inhulets 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 / Inhulets 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.726 / def 1.221 | Inhulets attack 0.746 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Obolon'-Brovar (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Inhulets xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets?
Obolon'-Brovar 2 - 1 Inhulets.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 39% chance of winning, Inhulets a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Obolon'-Brovar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Obolon'-Brovar's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Inhulets's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Obolon'-Brovar Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.42
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.26
1.06
Inhulets xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.06 for Inhulets, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 7 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.29 PPG on a 0W 2D 5L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inhulets's form line: 0W 4D 3L from 7 games, 0.57 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.29 PPG, Inhulets on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Inhulets have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.29 goals scored and 2.57 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.71 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
Inhulets
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Inhulets away?
Obolon'-Brovar's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.50 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Obolon'-Brovar
0
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets?
From 2 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, Inhulets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 25%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 75% of games; Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 50% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Obolon'-Brovar and Inhulets tend to score early?
Obolon'-Brovar have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Inhulets 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Inhulets 2-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 xG and Inhulets 1.06 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.73 / defence 1.22 against Inhulets attack 0.75 / defence 1.33, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 29% | Inhulets 32%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 57%, Inhulets 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.29 PPG, Inhulets 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.