FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to to take on FC Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv at this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Kharkiv 1.50 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). FC Kharkiv's 20% and LNZ Cherkasy's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 66% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FC Kharkiv 34% | LNZ Cherkasy 17%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FC Kharkiv 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.46 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / defence 0.740 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.828 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.099. FC Kharkiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 FC Kharkiv games / 34 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 55% | Draw 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | LNZ Cherkasy 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Kharkiv 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 55% | Draw 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.46 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.279 / def 0.740 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.828 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
0.67
LNZ Cherkasy xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 55% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (4 meetings): FC Kharkiv 1W | Draws 2 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus FC Kharkiv's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
55%
1.83
30%
3.36
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.14
0.67
LNZ Cherkasy xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
4%
27.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 0.67 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 16W 12D 7L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 19W 8D 8L from 35 games, 1.86 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Kharkiv on 1.71 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 10W 4D 4L from 18 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.17 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 17%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 66% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 16W 12D 7L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 8D 8L in their last 35 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.78 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.89 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 66%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Kharkiv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 1, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-1 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FC Kharkiv 22% BTTS, LNZ Cherkasy 17%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for FC Kharkiv and 33% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 67%; FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 28% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 17% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.