Lviv 2-1 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Zorya Luhansk travel to Arena L'viv to take on Lviv in Premier League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lviv — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Lviv have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 home games (0.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Zorya Luhansk have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Zorya Luhansk's away record over their last 6 away games: 4W 1D 1L (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 3.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zorya Luhansk — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Lviv trading profile (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Zorya Luhansk trading profile (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 50% versus Zorya Luhansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 36% | Zorya Luhansk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.94 xG and Zorya Luhansk 2.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.619 / defence 1.394 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.590 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.064 / away 1.277. Lviv's attack rating of 0.619 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Zorya Luhansk's defence rating of 1.419 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lviv's projected output up. Zorya Luhansk have an above-average attack rating of 1.590, which lifts their away xG to 2.83. Lviv's defence rating of 1.394 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zorya Luhansk's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 14 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 14.
Result probabilities: Lviv 9% | Draw 15% | Zorya Luhansk 76%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 11.00 | Draw 6.68 | Zorya Luhansk 1.32. The model has a clear lean to Zorya Luhansk (76%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.77 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lviv's last 8 home games and Zorya Luhansk's last 6 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lviv 50% (last 8 home games) | Zorya Luhansk 83% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Arena L'viv • Kick-off: Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 9% | Draw 15% | Zorya Luhansk 76% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Lviv 0.94 / Zorya Luhansk 2.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 0.619 / def 1.394 | Zorya Luhansk attack 1.590 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.064 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
2.83
Zorya Luhansk xG
58%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk FAQs
What time does Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Arena L'viv.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Lviv 2 - 1 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Arena L'viv.
What competition is Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 9% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 76% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lviv and Zorya Luhansk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lviv's attack at 0.62x the league average against Zorya Luhansk's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 2.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lviv's last 14 games and Zorya Luhansk's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
9%
11.00
15%
6.68
76%
1.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lviv xG
Total xG
3.77
2.83
Zorya Luhansk xG
11.00
9%
Home win
6.68
15%
Draw
1.32
76%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
6%
16.95
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
1%
186.42
30%
3.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Lviv and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lviv and 2.83 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lviv's recent record stands at 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Zorya Luhansk, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 3L across 14 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zorya Luhansk by 1.36 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lviv have managed 0W 2D 4L from their last 6 home games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zorya Luhansk's away record stands at 4W 1D 1L across their last 6 away games, a 2.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zorya Luhansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 2.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Zorya Luhansk in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
Lviv (Home) vs Zorya Luhansk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lviv
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Form FAQs
What form are Lviv and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 9W 2D 3L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.33 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Lviv or Zorya Luhansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Zorya Luhansk in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 11 March 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zorya Luhansk have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Lviv's record when hosting Zorya Luhansk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Lviv
0
Draws
2
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Lviv have won 1, Zorya Luhansk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 March 2023: Zorya Luhansk 3-1 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lviv at 50%, Zorya Luhansk at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lviv) and 83% (Zorya Luhansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 83% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lviv have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lviv vs Zorya Luhansk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lviv and Zorya Luhansk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lviv's games and 83% of Zorya Luhansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lviv and Zorya Luhansk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Lviv's matches and 83% of Zorya Luhansk's.
Do Lviv and Zorya Luhansk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lviv's recent matches and 100% of Zorya Luhansk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lviv defy the odds to beat Zorya Luhansk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lviv beat Zorya Luhansk 2-1 at Arena L'viv, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 0.94 xG and Zorya Luhansk 2.83 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lviv beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zorya Luhansk landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 0.62 / defence 1.39 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.59 / defence 1.42, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 9% | Draw 15% | Zorya Luhansk 76%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Lviv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 36%, Zorya Luhansk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.