Minai 2-2 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Minai at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Minai vs Inhulets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Minai welcome Inhulets to Stadion Avanhard. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Minai have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Minai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Minai's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 2L across 6 games at Stadion Avanhard this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Minai are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Inhulets — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Inhulets have posted 1W 1D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Inhulets's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Minai's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Minai trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Inhulets trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Minai 38% versus Inhulets 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Minai 31% | Inhulets 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Minai 1.17 xG and Inhulets 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Minai attack 0.722 / defence 1.177 | Inhulets attack 0.564 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.244. Minai's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Minai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Minai games / 13 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Minai 43% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 25%. Fair-value odds: Minai 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Inhulets 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Minai as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Inhulets (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Minai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Minai 50% | Inhulets 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Minai vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Minai 43% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Minai 1.17 / Inhulets 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Minai attack 0.722 / def 1.177 | Inhulets attack 0.564 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Minai (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Minai xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Inhulets xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Minai vs Inhulets kick off?
Minai vs Inhulets kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Minai vs Inhulets?
Minai 2 - 2 Inhulets.
Where is Minai vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Minai vs Inhulets part of?
Minai vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Minai vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Minai a 43% chance of winning, Inhulets a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Minai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Minai vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Minai and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Minai vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Inhulets?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Minai and Inhulets in?
Minai (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Inhulets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Minai's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Inhulets's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Minai's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Minai Win
43%
2.35
33%
3.07
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Minai xG
Total xG
1.99
0.83
Inhulets xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 11.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Minai vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Minai and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Minai and 0.83 for Inhulets, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Minai vs Inhulets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Minai come into this having played 13 games, going 1W 5D 7L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Minai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.69 PPG from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Minai on 0.62 PPG, Inhulets on 0.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Minai's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Minai are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.69 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Minai
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Minai and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Minai have gone 1W 5D 7L in their last 13 games (0.62 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Minai at home or Inhulets away?
Minai's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Minai at home: 1.00 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Minai's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Minai
1
Draws
1
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Minai and Inhulets?
From 3 meetings on record, Minai have won 1, Inhulets have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Minai and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Minai 1-2 Inhulets.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Minai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Minai 50%, Inhulets 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Minai) and 50% (Inhulets).
On the defensive side: Minai keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Minai have failed to score in 33% of games; Inhulets in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Minai home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Minai play Inhulets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Minai's recent matches and 33% of Inhulets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Minai vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Minai's recent games and 50% of Inhulets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Minai and Inhulets tend to score early?
Minai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Minai and Inhulets share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Minai and Inhulets finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Minai 1.17 xG and Inhulets 0.83 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Minai beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inhulets outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Minai attack 0.72 / defence 1.18 against Inhulets attack 0.56 / defence 1.50, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Minai 43% | Draw 33% | Inhulets 25%, with Minai to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Minai 31%, Inhulets 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Minai's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Inhulets's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Minai 0.62 PPG, Inhulets 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Minai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.