Lviv 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Lviv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Arena L'viv in Premier League (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 11 December 2021 at 17:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Lviv — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Lviv's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 5L across their last 9 home games (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.40 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Vorskla Poltava stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Vorskla Poltava's away record over their last 7 away games: 3W 2D 2L (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Vorskla Poltava's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Lviv's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lviv have won 0, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2021, ended Lviv 1–4 Vorskla Poltava — a Vorskla Poltava win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Lviv in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Vorskla Poltava in-play and half-time data (last 17 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 53% versus Vorskla Poltava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 41% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 0.96 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 0.719 / defence 1.261 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.856 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.218. Lviv's attack rating of 0.719 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Lviv's defence rating of 1.261 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vorskla Poltava's projected output up. Data: built from Lviv's last 17 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 17.

Result probabilities: Lviv 27% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 45%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.67 | Draw 3.58 | Vorskla Poltava 2.23. Vorskla Poltava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lviv 56% (last 9 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 57% (last 7 away games).

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