Veres Rivne 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Veres Rivne host Ruh Lviv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Veres Rivne have gone 4W 3D 1L this season (8 games, 1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 8 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Avanhard. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Veres Rivne are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Veres Rivne) versus 1.00 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Veres Rivne, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Veres Rivne 19% | Ruh Lviv 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 38% | Ruh Lviv 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.777 / defence 0.924 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.731 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.119 / away 1.216. Veres Rivne's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ruh Lviv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Veres Rivne games / 16 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 43% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 26%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Ruh Lviv 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Veres Rivne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 12% | Ruh Lviv 38% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 43% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Veres Rivne 1.13 / Ruh Lviv 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.777 / def 0.924 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.731 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.119 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ruh Lviv xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Veres Rivne 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 43% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.78) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Veres Rivne's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.25
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
1.95
0.82
Ruh Lviv xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.82 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Veres Rivne come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 3D 7L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ruh Lviv sit at 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Veres Rivne on 1.31 PPG, Ruh Lviv on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Veres Rivne's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — Veres Rivne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ruh Lviv have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ruh Lviv's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.94 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games.
Defensively: Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Veres Rivne's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 2.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Veres Rivne's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Veres Rivne
4
Draws
4
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv?
From 10 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 2, Ruh Lviv have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Veres Rivne tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Veres Rivne 14% BTTS, Ruh Lviv 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Veres Rivne and 14% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 29% of games; Ruh Lviv in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 29% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 14% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne and Ruh Lviv finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.13 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.82 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 0.92 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 43% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 26%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 38%, Ruh Lviv 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 28%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.31 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.