LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Polessya travel to Cherkasy Arena to take on LNZ Cherkasy. The game is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at Cherkasy Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at Cherkasy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Polessya — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Polessya have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (LNZ Cherkasy) versus 1.20 (Polessya). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Polessya and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Polessya trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 49% versus Polessya 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Polessya 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 xG and Polessya 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.031 / defence 1.059 | Polessya attack 1.033 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 0.853. Data: 51 LNZ Cherkasy games / 51 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Polessya 4.35. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 50% | Polessya 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 / Polessya 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.031 / def 1.059 | Polessya attack 1.033 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.244 / away 0.853 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Polessya xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 1 Polessya.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 51% chance of winning, Polessya a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Record (3 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 1 | Polessya 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Polessya (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.86
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Polessya xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.93 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 13L across 51 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.29 PPG, Polessya on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 10W 4D 11L from 25 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 11W 6D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.33 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Polessya have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.36 PPG; Polessya away: 1.56 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Polessya in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 48%, Polessya 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 48% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Polessya in 40%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 28% of games; Polessya in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 44% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 48% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Polessya in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 xG and Polessya 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Polessya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Polessya 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Polessya's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.29 PPG, Polessya 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.