Livyi Bereh 0-3 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 41%, yet in-form Livyi Bereh provide a compelling counter-argument — this Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh host Vorskla Poltava at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Livyi Bereh stand at 1W 2D 2L from 5 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Livyi Bereh's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 0L across 3 games at Stadion Livyi Bereh this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Livyi Bereh are significantly better at Stadion Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Vorskla Poltava have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Vorskla Poltava have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Livyi Bereh are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Livyi Bereh trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Livyi Bereh 40% versus Vorskla Poltava 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Livyi Bereh 20% | Vorskla Poltava 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.889 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.212. Data: 1 Livyi Bereh games / 31 Vorskla Poltava games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 31% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 41%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Vorskla Poltava 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vorskla Poltava are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Livyi Bereh (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Livyi Bereh 67% | Vorskla Poltava 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 31% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.04 / Vorskla Poltava 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.889 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Vorskla Poltava xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 3 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 31% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
31%
3.22
28%
3.53
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.29
1.24
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.24 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Livyi Bereh are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vorskla Poltava.
Goals in Recent Form
Livyi Bereh are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.40 scored and 2.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vorskla Poltava in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2024, when Vorskla Poltava 0-1 Livyi Bereh.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Livyi Bereh 40%, Vorskla Poltava 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Livyi Bereh) and 80% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 40% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 60% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 80% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vorskla Poltava run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Livyi Bereh 0-3 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.04 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.24 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Livyi Bereh fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 1/31 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 31% | Draw 28% | Vorskla Poltava 41%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 20%, Vorskla Poltava 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Livyi Bereh arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Livyi Bereh managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vorskla Poltava scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.