Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vorskla Poltava make the trip to Stadion Kolos to face Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kolos Kovalivka have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Kolos, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Kolos Kovalivka, 1.80 for Vorskla Poltava — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Vorskla Poltava hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
It is worth noting that Vorskla Poltava have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Vorskla Poltava half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 26% versus Vorskla Poltava 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kolos Kovalivka 29% | Vorskla Poltava 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.03 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.799 / defence 0.915 | Vorskla Poltava attack 1.042 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.181. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Kolos Kovalivka games / 38 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 36%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Vorskla Poltava 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vorskla Poltava at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 10% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.03 / Vorskla Poltava 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.799 / def 0.915 | Vorskla Poltava attack 1.042 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 31% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 3W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.80) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (1.04x) against Kolos Kovalivka's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
31%
3.18
32%
3.11
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.15
1.13
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.13 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 11W 11D 16L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 17W 6D 15L from 38 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.50 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (7W 3D 9L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 7W 3D 9L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 11W 11D 16L in their last 38 games (1.16 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 17W 6D 15L in their last 38 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.26 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
2
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 21%, Vorskla Poltava 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Kolos Kovalivka) and 58% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 63% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 58% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.03 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.13 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.80 / defence 0.92 against Vorskla Poltava attack 1.04 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 31% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 36%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 29%, Vorskla Poltava 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.16 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.