Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kolos Kovalivka face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Kolos Kovalivka welcome Shakhtar Donetsk to Kolos Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 December 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kolos Kovalivka's home record at Kolos Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Shakhtar Donetsk have the better historical record — 6 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Kolos Kovalivka.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 4–2 with Kolos Kovalivka winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 43% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kolos Kovalivka 27% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 0.79 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.941 / defence 0.857 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.495 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.308. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.495 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Kolos Kovalivka games / 44 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 17% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 5.88 | Draw 4.17 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kolos Kovalivka 60% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 17% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 0.79 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.941 / def 0.857 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.495 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 0 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 17% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (7 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 1W | Draws 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk 6W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Kolos Kovalivka's attack rating (0.94) and Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
17%
5.74
24%
4.16
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.46
1.68
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.74
17%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
3%
30.63
27%
3.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.3 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.68 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 14W 17D 13L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form line: 27W 12D 5L from 44 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kolos Kovalivka.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (5W 11D 6L).
On the road, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 12W 8D 2L from 22 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.41 scored and 0.86 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into Kolos Kovalivka's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 14W 17D 13L in their last 44 games (1.34 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 27W 12D 5L in their last 44 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.18 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Kolos Kovalivka
1
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 2, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 46%, Shakhtar Donetsk 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Kolos Kovalivka and 41% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 54%; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 41% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 41% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Kolos Kovalivka's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Kolos Kovalivka and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 0.79 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.68 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.50 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 17% | Draw 24% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 27%, Shakhtar Donetsk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.