Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ternopilsky Misky Stadion plays host to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi versus Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Shakhtar Donetsk are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.261 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 0.993. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 30 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.04. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form averages suggest ~3.2 goals/game but Poisson Over 2.5 probability is only 41% — the model is applying a significant defensive adjustment; treat Over 2.5 with caution despite form.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.261 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.196 / away 0.993 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 22% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.85) and Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.26x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
22%
4.58
29%
3.47
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.31
1.44
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.2 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.44 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. Shakhtar Donetsk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi against 1.00 for Shakhtar Donetsk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's scoring rate against Shakhtar Donetsk's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Pre-Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
3
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 100% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 0% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-1 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.87 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.44 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.86, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 22% | Draw 29% | Shakhtar Donetsk 49%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 100%, Shakhtar Donetsk 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shakhtar Donetsk win broke the near-deadlock. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Shakhtar Donetsk conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.