Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium plays host to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi versus FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 24 October 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
FC Kharkiv arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W, FC Kharkiv 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% versus FC Kharkiv 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | FC Kharkiv 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.92 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.734 / defence 0.941 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.198 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.143. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 38 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 24% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 43%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | FC Kharkiv 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 24% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.92 / FC Kharkiv 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.734 / def 0.941 | FC Kharkiv attack 1.198 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Kharkiv xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1 - 2 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 24% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv?
Record (2 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 0W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.73) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (1.20x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
24%
4.19
34%
2.97
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.21
1.29
FC Kharkiv xG
4.19
24%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
7%
15.22
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.29 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 7L across 38 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have managed 5W 6D 7L from 18 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 8W 7D 3L across 18 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.37 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; FC Kharkiv in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 19W 12D 7L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Kharkiv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 39% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 39%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 44% of games; FC Kharkiv in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 39% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Kharkiv edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 at Roman Shukhevych Ternopil City Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.92 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.29 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.73 / defence 0.94 against FC Kharkiv attack 1.20 / defence 0.92, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 24% | Draw 34% | FC Kharkiv 43%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53%, FC Kharkiv 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.