Chornomorets 0-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chornomorets have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Chornomorets's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Vorskla Poltava have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Chornomorets's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
It is worth noting that Vorskla Poltava have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Vorskla Poltava goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 43% versus Vorskla Poltava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 40% | Vorskla Poltava 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.807 / defence 1.039 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.946 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.096. Data: 42 Chornomorets games / 42 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 33%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Vorskla Poltava 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Vorskla Poltava lead the H2H ledger, but Chornomorets carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 30% | Vorskla Poltava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Chornomorets 1.10 / Vorskla Poltava 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.807 / def 1.039 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.946 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Vorskla Poltava xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 35% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (5 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Vorskla Poltava 4W.
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.95x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
35%
2.89
32%
3.12
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.18
1.08
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.08 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Chornomorets have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 13W 5D 24L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 11W 10D 21L from 42 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.02 for Vorskla Poltava. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Chornomorets have posted 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (10W 2D 10L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.98 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 13W 5D 24L in their last 42 games (1.05 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 11W 10D 21L in their last 42 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.45 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Chornomorets
1
Draws
5
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-2 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 36%, Vorskla Poltava 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Chornomorets) and 36% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 27% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 46% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Chornomorets's recent games and 36% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.10 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.08 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.04 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 35% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 33%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 40%, Vorskla Poltava 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (42 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (42 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.05 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.