Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Chornomorets take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Epitsentr Dunayivtsi travel to Chornomorets Stadium to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chornomorets have posted 1W 3D 2L at Chornomorets Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chornomorets Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 0.90 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 40% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.03 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.682 / defence 0.969 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.018 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.065. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Chornomorets games / 41 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 31% | Draw 37% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 50% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Chornomorets Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 31% | Draw 37% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Chornomorets 1.03 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.682 / def 0.969 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.018 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Chornomorets Stadium.
Where is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Chornomorets Stadium.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 31% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.68x the league average against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
37%
2.69
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.08
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.05 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 3D 5L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 0.60 PPG from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 0.90 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 3D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 0.70 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.20 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 40%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Chornomorets) and 80% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Chornomorets have failed to score in 40% of games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 40% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Chornomorets's recent games and 80% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.