Uthai Thani 3-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Prachuap travel to Uthai Thani Province Stadium to take on Uthai Thani. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 March 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Uthai Thani have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Uthai Thani Province Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Prachuap — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Uthai Thani 1.20 PPG, Prachuap 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Uthai Thani have won 1, Prachuap 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Uthai Thani trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Prachuap trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 53% versus Prachuap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 55% | Prachuap 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.30 xG and Prachuap 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.826 / defence 0.721 | Prachuap attack 0.970 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.204. Uthai Thani's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Uthai Thani games / 53 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 47% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Prachuap 4.35. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 40% | Prachuap 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 47% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Uthai Thani 1.30 / Prachuap 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.826 / def 0.721 | Prachuap attack 0.970 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Prachuap xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Uthai Thani 3 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap part of?
Uthai Thani vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 47% chance of winning, Prachuap a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Uthai Thani and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 1W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 1W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.83x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.35
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.15
0.84
Prachuap xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
6%
15.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.84 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 17W 14D 22L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 17W 17D 19L from 53 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.23 PPG, Prachuap on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (9W 10D 7L).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 10D 14L from 26 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.26 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Prachuap away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.42 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Prachuap in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Prachuap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Prachuap?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 54%, Prachuap 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Uthai Thani) and 38% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Uthai Thani have failed to score in 27% of games; Prachuap in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 54% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 38% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Prachuap tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Prachuap 3-1 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.30 xG and Prachuap 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.83 / defence 0.72 against Prachuap attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 47% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 23%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 55%, Prachuap 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.23 PPG, Prachuap 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.