Uthai Thani 1-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Chonburi FC.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Uthai Thani and Chonburi FC meet at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Uthai Thani's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chonburi FC have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chonburi FC away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Uthai Thani, 1.00 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) — Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chonburi FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Uthai Thani, 0 for Chonburi FC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Uthai Thani 2–0 Chonburi FC — a Uthai Thani win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Chonburi FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 53% versus Chonburi FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 53% | Chonburi FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.29 xG and Chonburi FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.737 / defence 1.173 | Chonburi FC attack 0.934 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.204. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 19 games and Chonburi FC's last 49.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 34% | Draw 31% | Chonburi FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.95 | Draw 3.22 | Chonburi FC 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Chonburi FC as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Chonburi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 60% (last 10 home games) | Chonburi FC 80% (last 10 away games).

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