Sukhothai FC 2-1 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sukhothai FC face Chiangrai United.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sukhothai FC and Chiangrai United meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 11:30 UK time.

Current Form

Sukhothai FC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sukhothai FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Chiangrai United (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Sukhothai FC against 1.10 for Chiangrai United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games) — Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Chiangrai United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Oct 2023, ended Sukhothai FC 1–2 Chiangrai United — a Chiangrai United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Chiangrai United — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 53% and Chiangrai United 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 51% | Chiangrai United 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.28 xG and Chiangrai United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.891 / defence 0.981 | Chiangrai United attack 0.876 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.217. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 49 games and Chiangrai United's last 49.

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 32% | Chiangrai United 28%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.51 | Draw 3.13 | Chiangrai United 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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