Sukhothai FC 2-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Muangthong United at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 2W 3D 3L from 8 Thai League 1 appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Muangthong United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Muangthong United have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sukhothai FC at 1.20 PPG versus Muangthong United's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Muangthong United 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Muangthong United in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 41% versus Muangthong United 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 35% | Muangthong United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.89 xG and Muangthong United 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.605 / defence 1.092 | Muangthong United attack 1.334 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.215. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Muangthong United have an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Sukhothai FC games / 47 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 17% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 57%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Muangthong United 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 12% | Muangthong United 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 17% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.89 / Muangthong United 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.605 / def 1.092 | Muangthong United attack 1.334 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Muangthong United xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 17% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Record (1 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.60x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
17%
5.79
26%
3.84
57%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.77
Muangthong United xG
5.79
17%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.77
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
3%
33.94
23%
4.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.77 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 6D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.06 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sukhothai FC's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.82 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 5W 7D 5L in their last 17 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.12 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Muangthong United have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 12%, Muangthong United 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Sukhothai FC) and 75% (Muangthong United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 75% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 75% of Muangthong United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Muangthong United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Muangthong United 2-1 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.89 xG and Muangthong United 1.77 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.09 against Muangthong United attack 1.33 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 17% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 57%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Sukhothai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 35%, Muangthong United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.06 PPG, Muangthong United 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.