Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Chonburi FC travel to Thalay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thalay Luang Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chonburi FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sukhothai FC) versus 1.10 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 2 for Chonburi FC and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Chonburi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 49% versus Chonburi FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 46% | Chonburi FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.63 xG and Chonburi FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.155 / defence 1.113 | Chonburi FC attack 0.912 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 37 Sukhothai FC games / 36 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Chonburi FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 41% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.63 / Chonburi FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.155 / def 1.113 | Chonburi FC attack 0.912 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Chonburi FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 41% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (6 meetings): Sukhothai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (1.16) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.93
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.48
Chonburi FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.48 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 10D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.00 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 72%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sukhothai FC and 61% for Chonburi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Sukhothai FC's games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 61% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.