Sukhothai FC 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (54%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sukhothai FC face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Buriram United at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sukhothai FC at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Buriram United — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sukhothai FC's games and 70% of Buriram United's (from Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Buriram United have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Sukhothai FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2024, ended Sukhothai FC 0–2 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Buriram United have won 5 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Buriram United trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 61% versus Buriram United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 64% | Buriram United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.17 xG and Buriram United 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.987 / defence 1.112 | Buriram United attack 1.420 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.208. Buriram United bring a tight defence (rating 0.708, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sukhothai FC's projected output down. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.420, which lifts their away xG to 1.91. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 57 games and Buriram United's last 56.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 23% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 54%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 4.42 | Draw 4.29 | Buriram United 1.85. Buriram United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Buriram United as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sukhothai FC's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 28 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 23% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Sukhothai FC 1.17 / Buriram United 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.987 / def 1.112 | Buriram United attack 1.420 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Buriram United xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United FAQs
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 28) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 23% chance of winning, Buriram United a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Buriram United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sukhothai FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sukhothai FC's last 57 games and Buriram United's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
23%
4.42
23%
4.29
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.91
Buriram United xG
4.42
23%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
3%
29.79
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.91 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 17W 12D 27L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 40W 13D 3L across 56 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 15W 3D 10L from their last 28 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Buriram United's away record stands at 18W 8D 2L across their last 28 away games, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.68 scored and 0.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
Sukhothai FC (Home) vs Buriram United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United Form FAQs
What form are Sukhothai FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 17W 12D 27L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 40W 13D 3L in their last 56 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Buriram United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Buriram United have won the most recent 9 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2026, when Buriram United won Buriram United 6-0 Sukhothai FC.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
9
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Buriram United?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Buriram United have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Buriram United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Sukhothai FC 1-3 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 57%, Buriram United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Sukhothai FC and 57% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Buriram United in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sukhothai FC vs Buriram United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sukhothai FC and Buriram United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sukhothai FC's games and 57% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sukhothai FC and Buriram United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 57% of Buriram United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Buriram United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 64% of Buriram United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Sukhothai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.17 xG and Buriram United 1.91 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Buriram United attack 1.42 / defence 0.71, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 23% | Draw 23% | Buriram United 54%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 64%, Buriram United 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.