Prachuap 2-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Prachuap) versus 1.50 (Lamphun Warrior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Lamphun Warrior 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 48% | Lamphun Warrior 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.59 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.166 / defence 0.756 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.848 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.209. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Prachuap games / 57 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 57% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 18%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Lamphun Warrior 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Lamphun Warrior 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 57% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Prachuap 1.59 / Lamphun Warrior 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.166 / def 0.756 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.848 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Lamphun Warrior xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap 2 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 57% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (5 meetings): Prachuap 2W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.17x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.89
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.37
0.78
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
4%
27.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.78 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 56 games, going 18W 17D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.25 PPG from 56 outings (18W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.27 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 16W 7D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.79 points per game from 28 outings (4W 10D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.38 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 18W 17D 21L in their last 56 games (1.27 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 18W 16D 22L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Prachuap's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.96 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Prachuap's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 50%, Lamphun Warrior 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Prachuap) and 54% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Prachuap's recent matches and 46% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Prachuap's recent games and 54% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Lamphun Warrior 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Lamphun Warrior 2-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.59 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.78 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.17 / defence 0.76 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.85 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 57% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 18%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 48%, Lamphun Warrior 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.27 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.