Sisaket United vs Port FC – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Port FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sisaket United vs Port FC encounter.

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Full Analysis

Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium plays host to Sisaket United versus Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form

Sisaket United (all games): 3W 1D 3L across 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.43 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium, Sisaket United have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, Port FC are the stronger side — 1.07 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.43). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sisaket United register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Port FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading Data

Sisaket United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sisaket United 71% and Port FC 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sisaket United 57% | Port FC 86%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.10 xG and Port FC 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.925 / defence 1.281 | Port FC attack 1.047 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Data: 7 Sisaket United games / 36 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sisaket United 20% | Draw 23% | Port FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Port FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sisaket United 75% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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