Rayong FC 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rayong FC host Uthai Thani at Rayong Province Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayong FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rayong FC have posted 4W 5D 1L at Rayong Province Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rayong FC are significantly better at Rayong Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rayong FC at 1.20 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 3 for Uthai Thani and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–4 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 76% and Uthai Thani 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 53% | Uthai Thani 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Uthai Thani 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.974 / defence 0.835 | Uthai Thani attack 1.176 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.287. Data: 34 Rayong FC games / 34 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Uthai Thani 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Uthai Thani 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Rayong Province Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Rayong FC 1.38 / Uthai Thani 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.974 / def 0.835 | Uthai Thani attack 1.176 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Uthai Thani xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Rayong Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Rayong FC 1 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Province Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 40% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rayong FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (4 meetings): Rayong FC 1W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 3W.
What form are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.82
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.26
Uthai Thani xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.26 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 11W 11D 12L from 34 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 14L across 34 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.29 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 8W 7D 2L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 4W 5D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 11W 11D 12L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.82 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Uthai Thani won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayong FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
1
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
From 5 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 35% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 71%, Uthai Thani at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Rayong FC) and 53% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Rayong FC's games and 65% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Rayong FC's recent games and 53% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rayong Province Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Rayong FC and Uthai Thani drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Uthai Thani 1.26 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.83 against Uthai Thani attack 1.18 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 40% | Draw 26% | Uthai Thani 34%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 53%, Uthai Thani 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.29 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.