Rayong FC 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rayong FC at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Rayong FC welcome Chonburi FC to Rayong Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's home record at Rayong Provincial Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Rayong FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rayong FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 75% and Chonburi FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 42% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.71 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 1.041 / defence 0.939 | Chonburi FC attack 0.835 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.198. Data: 42 Rayong FC games / 12 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 52% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Chonburi FC 5.88. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rayong FC at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayong FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 70% | Chonburi FC 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 52% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Rayong FC 1.71 / Chonburi FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 1.041 / def 0.939 | Chonburi FC attack 0.835 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Chonburi FC xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Rayong FC 1 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 52% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rayong FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chonburi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Chonburi FC in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.31
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.65
0.94
Chonburi FC xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
31.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Rayong FC and 0.94 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 5L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rayong FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chonburi FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 1W 3D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rayong FC
0
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chonburi FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 1, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Chonburi FC 4-1 Rayong FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rayong FC at 67%, Chonburi FC at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rayong FC) and 67% (Chonburi FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rayong FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chonburi FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 67% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Rayong FC's matches and 67% of Chonburi FC's.
Do Rayong FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Chonburi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.71 xG and Chonburi FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Chonburi FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 52% | Draw 30% | Chonburi FC 17%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 42%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.