Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Rayong FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 17 as Ratchaburi welcome Rayong FC to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rayong FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Ratchaburi hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Rayong FC, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ratchaburi and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Rayong FC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 60% and Rayong FC 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 57% | Rayong FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.83 xG and Rayong FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / defence 0.869 | Rayong FC attack 1.069 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack strength of 1.385 — their λ of 2.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Ratchaburi games / 37 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 17% | Rayong FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.47 | Draw 5.88 | Rayong FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (68%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.19. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.19 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.83 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 70% | Rayong FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 68% | Draw 17% | Rayong FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 70% | xG Ratchaburi 2.83 / Rayong FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.385 / def 0.869 | Rayong FC attack 1.069 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.83
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Rayong FC xG
70%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 68% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Ratchaburi and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 4W | Draws 1 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.39) and Rayong FC's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
68%
1.48
17%
5.91
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.83
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
4.19
1.35
Rayong FC xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.91
17%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
6%
17.00
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
1%
110.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.83 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.35 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 4.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 22W 6D 9L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC's form line: 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayong FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Rayong FC have gone 3W 4D 11L from 18 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayong FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.43 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC in 76%.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 6D 9L in their last 37 games (1.95 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Rayong FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.89 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when Ratchaburi won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Rayong FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Rayong FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 50%, Rayong FC at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ratchaburi) and 67% (Rayong FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ratchaburi's games and 83% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ratchaburi's matches and 67% of Rayong FC's.
Do Ratchaburi and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.