Ratchaburi 3-2 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 62% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host Prachuap at Ratchaburi Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ratchaburi have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Prachuap stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Ratchaburi have won 3, Prachuap 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2024, ended Ratchaburi 2–3 Prachuap — a Prachuap win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 51% versus Prachuap 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Prachuap 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.00 xG and Prachuap 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.119 / defence 0.830 | Prachuap attack 1.006 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.132. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 55 games and Prachuap's last 55.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.62 | Draw 4.69 | Prachuap 5.90. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (62%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 40% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Ratchaburi Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 28 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Ratchaburi 2.00 / Prachuap 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.119 / def 0.830 | Prachuap attack 1.006 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Prachuap xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Prachuap FAQs
What time does Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Friday 28 March 2025 at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Ratchaburi 3 - 2 Prachuap.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Ratchaburi Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Prachuap part of?
Ratchaburi vs Prachuap is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 27) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 62% chance of winning, Prachuap a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Prachuap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ratchaburi vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.12x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ratchaburi's last 55 games and Prachuap's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
62%
1.62
21%
4.69
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.95
0.94
Prachuap xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
2%
43.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ratchaburi vs Prachuap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.94 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Prachuap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 55 games, going 22W 13D 20L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 1.29 PPG from 55 outings (18W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.44 PPG, Prachuap on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ratchaburi's home form reads 15W 5D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 27 away games (2W 10D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.33 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
Ratchaburi (Home) vs Prachuap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ratchaburi
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Ratchaburi vs Prachuap Form FAQs
What form are Ratchaburi and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 13D 20L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 18W 17D 20L in their last 55 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Prachuap away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.85 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Prachuap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won Prachuap 1-5 Ratchaburi.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Ratchaburi vs Prachuap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Prachuap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ratchaburi have won 4, Prachuap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Prachuap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 52%, Prachuap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ratchaburi) and 41% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Prachuap in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ratchaburi vs Prachuap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ratchaburi and Prachuap matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 56% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ratchaburi and Prachuap matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 41% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Prachuap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 74% of Prachuap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Prachuap 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Prachuap 3-2 at Ratchaburi Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.00 xG and Prachuap 0.94 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Prachuap outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 62% | Draw 21% | Prachuap 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Prachuap 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Prachuap's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.44 PPG, Prachuap 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.