Ratchaburi 0-0 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Mitr Phol Stadium plays host to Ratchaburi versus Pattaya United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 30 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ratchaburi at Mitr Phol Stadium this season: 4W 1D 4L from 9 home games — 1.44 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Pattaya United (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pattaya United's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 5L across 9 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ratchaburi 0W, Pattaya United 1W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Pattaya United winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Pattaya United half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 53% versus Pattaya United 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 47% | Pattaya United 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.11 xG and Pattaya United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.958 / defence 1.182 | Pattaya United attack 0.673 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.016 / away 1.128. Data: 18 Ratchaburi games / 17 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 40% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 29%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Pattaya United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 56% | Pattaya United 44%.

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