Prachuap vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Prachuap 1.70 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Prachuap, 4 for Ratchaburi and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 48% versus Ratchaburi 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 39% | Ratchaburi 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.52 xG and Ratchaburi 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.047 / defence 0.920 | Ratchaburi attack 1.064 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.091. Data: 31 Prachuap games / 31 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 47% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 3.85. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 50% | Ratchaburi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 47% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Prachuap 1.52 / Ratchaburi 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.047 / def 0.920 | Ratchaburi attack 1.064 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Ratchaburi xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 47% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Prachuap 4W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 4W.
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.72
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.59
1.07
Ratchaburi xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.07 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 11W 12D 8L from 31 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 18W 5D 8L across 31 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 8W 6D 1L from 15 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 9W 1D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.87 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.81 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 12D 8L in their last 31 games (1.45 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 18W 5D 8L in their last 31 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.00 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 40%, Ratchaburi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Prachuap) and 67% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Prachuap's recent matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Prachuap's recent games and 67% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.