Prachuap 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Ratchaburi travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 August 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Prachuap — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Prachuap are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Prachuap, 2 for Ratchaburi and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 67% versus Ratchaburi 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Prachuap 57% | Ratchaburi 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.76 xG and Ratchaburi 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.055 / defence 0.946 | Ratchaburi attack 0.912 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.260. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 30 Ratchaburi games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 52% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 4.55. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 70% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 52% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Prachuap 1.76 / Ratchaburi 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.055 / def 0.946 | Ratchaburi attack 0.912 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ratchaburi xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi part of?
Prachuap vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 52% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Prachuap and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.90
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.84
1.09
Ratchaburi xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
25.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.09 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap's recent record stands at 9W 8D 13L from 30 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. Prachuap haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 9L across 30 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. Ratchaburi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.17 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 6W 4D 5L from 15 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 5W 3D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.07 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Pre-Season
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Ratchaburi away?
Prachuap's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.47 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Ratchaburi runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Prachuap
2
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-1 Prachuap.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, Ratchaburi 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Prachuap) and 27% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Prachuap's recent matches and 33% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Prachuap's recent games and 27% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.76 xG and Ratchaburi 1.09 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 1.02, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 52% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 57%, Ratchaburi 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.17 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.