Prachuap 4-0 Nong Bua Pitchaya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Nong Bua Pitchaya travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 August 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nong Bua Pitchaya stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Thai League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Prachuap, 3 for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 5–1 with Prachuap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.87 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.962 / defence 0.868 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.302. Data: 31 Prachuap games / 1 Nong Bua Pitchaya games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 59% | Draw 22% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 19%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Nong Bua Pitchaya lead the H2H ledger, but Prachuap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 59% | Draw 22% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Prachuap 1.87 / Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.962 / def 0.868 | Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kick off?
Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Prachuap 4 - 0 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Where is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya part of?
Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 59% chance of winning, Nong Bua Pitchaya a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Record (4 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Nong Bua Pitchaya 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.96) and Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.49
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.83
0.96
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
15%
6.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
3%
34.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.96 for Nong Bua Pitchaya, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 0.00 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Nong Bua Pitchaya are on 0.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Nong Bua Pitchaya in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2023, when Prachuap won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Nong Bua Pitchaya specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
0
Draws
4
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Nong Bua Pitchaya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Nong Bua Pitchaya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Prachuap's recent matches and 0% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Nong Bua Pitchaya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Prachuap's matches and 100% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's.
Do Prachuap and Nong Bua Pitchaya tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nong Bua Pitchaya in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Nong Bua Pitchaya.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 4-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.87 xG and Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.96 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Prachuap beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nong Bua Pitchaya landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.96 / defence 0.87 against Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 59% | Draw 22% | Nong Bua Pitchaya 19%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 100%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.00 PPG, Nong Bua Pitchaya 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.